Apple Slowly Moves Away From Its Annual Product Release Strategy

2024年10月6日

Apple is inching away from its annual product upgrade cycle, a move that could lead to more frequent releases and fewer jarring delays. Also: A look at when the company’s next products are coming out, including Apple Intelligence.

Last week in Power On: Meta’s new headsets show that Apple has lost its way with the Vision Pro.

The Starters

For years, Apple Inc. has updated its biggest products on an annual basis. We all know the drill: The company gives a preview of its new software in June and then rolls out the accompanying devices — iPhones, iPads and Macs — during September and October.

This approach has numerous benefits:

• First, it helps motivate employees to push toward the same goal. There is no confusion as to when certain products need to be ready.
• Second, analysts and investors know what to expect. The company gets a reliable sales bump around the same time each year, helping boost the all-important holiday quarter.
• Third, Apple has an easier time planning its marketing and public relations if it has one big bonanza in the fall. And the post-summer schedule launch event helps ensure that the media is back from vacation and paying attention (the iPhone launch is typically the first Tuesday or Wednesday the week after Labor Day in the US).

But despite those advantages, there are beginning to be cracks in the strategy. For one, Apple has a wider range of products these days, including several iPhones, iPads, Macs and AirPods. Updating all of those things at a yearly cadence isn’t practical. Moreover, there are some products — such as the Apple Watch Ultra or iPhone SE — that don’t need to be updated that often.

To be clear, Apple already deviates from its fall launch schedule. The company rolled out new iPads this past May and debuted faster Macs and a refreshed HomePod in January 2023. It also sometimes introduces new Macs in June, such as when it launched the 15-inch MacBook Air at its Worldwide Developers Conference in 2023 and the 13-inch version the year before that.

But it seems like Apple will have to go further toward a more fluid approach, where it releases products when they’re ready and doesn’t release them if they’re not.

Apple is organized functionally — by hardware, software and services — rather than having individual divisions for each product category. That means company engineers often need to contribute to the entire swath of products. For instance, the audio team doesn’t just have to develop new earbuds; it needs to work on speakers and acoustics for every Mac, Apple Watch and iPhone.

On top of all the products, Apple has a range of operating systems — iOS, macOS, visionOS, watchOS, tvOS and iPadOS, as well as the software running on AirPods and home devices. That makes it harder to get everything out the door on time.

In recent years, Apple was forced to delay key new features in its software updates by weeks or months. That created some awkward situations. The company made bold pronouncements about the improvements at its Worldwide Developers Conference in June, only for some features to slip from September until December or even March.

The latest software updates also show the strain of Apple’s approach. The current iPad operating system — iPadOS 18 — has few new features and included a bug that made some M4 iPad Pros unusable upon installation. The hardware had to be replaced to fix the problem, and the OS was unavailable for two weeks before returning Thursday. A day earlier, Apple was forced to pull the third beta version of watchOS 11.1 after it caused a similar glitch. And the same story unfolded with a HomePod beta update in September.

The good news is, Apple has clearly realized that there’s an issue. Pursuing a big fall launch for most of its new hardware and software offerings has become too much of a toll — and the company is ever-so-slightly inching away from that path.

To see this in action, look no further than Apple Intelligence. When it introduced the features in June, Apple telegraphed that the rollout would take place over several months, with Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook even admitting on a conference call with analysts that the release would be staggered.

Now, Apple hasn’t been entirely forthright about the phased rollout in its marketing. It heralded the iPhone 16 as the first device built from the ground up for Apple Intelligence and plastered the logo for the new AI features all over its website and retail stores. And yet, the iPhone 16 didn’t include Apple Intelligence when it launched last month.

In previous years, Apple would have avoided discussing features that wouldn’t be ready for a while. It didn’t want to feed the narrative that the upgrades were delayed. But, by pursuing more of a year-round release schedule, Apple can make this seem like a positive.

On the hardware front, there are clearly cases where an annual upgrade isn’t necessary. Though the company will probably always release a new iPhone every year — for competitive, financial and marketing reasons — it is now more selective in other areas.

Instead of releasing an Ultra 3 watch this year, Apple just added a new black color option to the Ultra 2. And the company didn’t touch the Apple Watch SE, its low-end model. That put the focus on the flagship Series 10 watch, which got a fresh design and other new features.

The Ultra and SE will get updated in 2025, putting those non-Series models on a two-year refresh cycle. Some of this is because Apple’s hardware innovation has slowed down, so it makes sense to save up two years’ worth of features to make a bigger splash.

But there are other signs that Apple releases are getting more spread out. The company is planning several hardware launches in both halves of next year. That makes sense given Apple’s plan to make major updates to iOS 18 during much of 2025. It will help tie the hardware launches together with those new software features.

For this to continue in 2026 and beyond, Apple will need to abandon the mad scramble to get OS features ready for release in September and stick with the more staggered approach. The change might make investors nervous, but the company may ultimately be more innovative without these constraints — and perhaps generate more revenue outside of the holiday quarter.

At the very least, it will make Apple less predictable, something the “surprise and delight” company is always striving for.

The Bench

Apple eyes Nov. 1 as date for its next product release, with more devices following in early 2025. Now that the iPhone 16 is shipping, Apple is turning its attention to other hardware products, including a new low-end iPhone, updated iPads and M4 Macs. Here is a look at what’s coming and when to expect it.

First, I expect Apple to announce the following products around the end of October. The company is currently aiming to then release at least some of them on Friday, Nov. 1:

• Low-end 14-inch MacBook Pro with M4 chip (code-named J604).
• High-end 14-inch and 16-inch MacBook Pros with M4 chips (J614 and J616).
• Revamped Mac mini in M4 and M4 Pro chip configurations (J773).
• Refreshed iMac with an M4 chip (J623).
• Refreshed iPad mini (J410).

I expect Apple to kick off 2025 with several other new devices in the first half of the year:

• 13-inch and 15-inch MacBook Air models with M4 (J613 and J615).
• Revamped iPhone SE (V59).
• Refreshed 11-inch and 13-inch iPad Air models (J607 and J637).
• New Magic Keyboards for the updated iPad Air line (R307 and R308).
• An upgraded AirTag item finder accessory (B589).

That’s a lot of stuff. New versions of the Mac Studio and Mac Pro with M4 chips are also in development, but they may take longer to arrive. I expect the Mac Studio launch to be closer to the middle of the year, with the Mac Pro going on sale sometime in the second half of 2025. And, of course, we should expect the iPhone 17 line and new Apple Watches in late 2025, along with M5 Macs.

Apple plans Oct. 28 release for Apple Intelligence and iOS 18.1. The company has been clear that Apple Intelligence will be arriving in October as part of the iOS 18.1 operating system. But now I can provide a little more detail on when in the month it’s supposed to arrive: Monday, Oct. 28. That means new iPhone buyers will have to wait a few more weeks to get the most hyped component of their devices. I’m told that Apple is taking its time with the rollout to ensure that major bugs are eliminated and it can support all the new traffic on its AI cloud servers.

As I’ve discussed previously, the first version of Apple Intelligence will include things like notification summaries, while subsequent updates like iOS 18.2 will add ChatGPT integration and support for Genmoji custom emoji. In March, iOS 18.4 will include many of the upgrades to the Siri digital assistant, including its ability to control applications more precisely and tap into personal information to answer queries. Other new features coming after iOS 18.1 include automated email filing in the mail app, plus an Image Playground app for creating custom images.

Source:When Will Apple Intelligence Be Released? When Is Apple Releasing M4 Macs, iPad? – Bloomberg